Everyone in this world including American public, federal sates and President Donald Trump must tolerate the ongoing Lockdowns and Social Distancing measures for quite some more time - ranging from 42 days to 220 days - depending on rates of recovery of Covid-19 patients...!
Before we go further, let's understand a few basics, first. Viruses are known to mutate. A virus becomes increasingly less and less lethal with each subsequent mutation.
All variants of Corona-19 virus are reported to have steadfastly been mutating in all parts of world including the USA. This is a good news, actually. It means the Corona-19 virus is becoming less dangerous. In other words, recovery rates of Covid-19 patients must show a corresponding steady upward positive increase. Indeed, this is the case in the USA.
I have studied the data available on worldmeters.info on deaths and recovery rates of people infected with Corona-19 virus in the USA from March13 to May 13 this year.
It is seen the USA saw the Peak of Death Rate of 75.27% on March 25. Since March 26, the death rate has been slowing from 46.02% to 21.54% on 13th of May. Conversely, the Recovery Rate has gone up from 24.73% on March 25 to 78.46% on May 13. Only exception was a period of few days in early April.
Clearly, this change in Death and Recovery rates reflects the gradual weakening of Corona-19 virus' strength to harm humans in respective geographies.
The data shows a recovery rate of 78% and death rate of 22% for Covid-19 patients in the USA as updated 13th of May. In other words, we have to find out days it shall take to bridge this gap of 22% deaths to ensure the recovery rate changes to 100% from the present 78%.
An analysis of data shows the Corona-19 virus may lose its full steam in coming months at the end of which there may happen 100% recovery and no death at all from Covid-19.
I have analysed concerned data in multiple ways.
When an average of cumulative increases (7.55) in recovery rates from May 01(72.13) to May 13 (78.46) is taken into consideration then the period needed to reach 100% recovery rate works out to 35 days. In other words, there shall be no death on 17th of June (May 13 + 35 days). If an average of difference (6.33) between 13th of May recovery rate (78.46) and May 1 (72.13) is calculated, it is 42 days which means 24th of June (May 13 + 42 days).
If calculation is based on Bloc-average (5.095) of 4 blocs of 10 days each from March 26 to May 4 (March 26-April 4, 4 April-14/15 April, 15 April-25 April, 25 April-May 5), 173 days is the required period which means recovery rate shall be 100% on November 2. When the calculation is based on an average (4.896) of 4 blocs of 10 days each and 5th bloc of 8 days ( May 5 - May 13) then it is 220 days which means there shall be no Covid-19 death on December 19.
In other words, American public must willingly show restraint and wait for Corona-19 virus to become either fully weak without any adverse effects on humans or atleast become so weak that it can be tackled with normal medications until a fully effective anti-Cororona-19 vaccine is available.
In terms of reopening of economy, the important applications of this analysis are as follows.
This isn't the correct time to reopen economy, as Corona-19 virus hasn't completely become weakened although increasing rates of recovery (311,721 - 78%) and decreasing death rate (86,040 - 22%), update May 14 18:14 GMT, do indicate that it is undergoing rapid degradation of its lethality.
Also, it implies the Americans must not step out of safe environs of their houses until 24th of June when statistically speaking, possibly the recovery rate shall have either become 100% or atleast the death shall have been reduced significantly.
If this scenario doesn't play out, it shall be another 173-220 days by which time Corona-19 virus shall have been reduced to status of just another viruses such as the HIV that the humans are now confidently tackling successfully without any big fear.
Given the huge number of deaths caused by Corona-19 virus in just over two months' time, it's only prudent for Americans to wait for this virus to become manageable over a period of time even if that means taking extraordinary harsh step of remaining in Lockdown until November, 2020.
Going by the present trends, recovery rates should definitely hover around 98-99% by the first week of September, 2020 if not by June-end in view of continuous mutations of Corona-19 virus.
As I have discussed, suggested and advised in my preceding papers - a wise government authority can easily tackle negative fallouts of a Complete Lockdown by ensuring adequate food and money for every person residing in their territorial jurisdictions.
It's only the woefully callous, careless, non-caring, insensitive, with no respect for lives of fellow humans; and highly incompetent governing dispensations that shall try to shirk their own constitutional responsibility by encouraging gullible public to demand lifting of Lockdowns in the name of saving economy and personal freedoms. Such inhuman rulers forget the basic dictum of democratic governance - they have been elected first and foremost to protect people's lives, especially in unheard-of-before natural calamities such as the Covid-19. Economy in any case isn't going to be ruined significantly except raw materials and perishable goods that may become useless if country remains nearly-Locked for a longer period of 5-6 months.
The results of statistical analysis done in in this brief research paper gives an important wise message to American government authorities: Wait until 30th June, 2020 in Lockdowns and see if Corona-19 virus has become manageable or not. If Corona-19 virus is found unmanageable at the end of June, extend Lockdown until December 19 with carefully planned and executed fully safe and secure opening of essential sectors of economy.
It is to be pointed here that a similar statistical analysis may be done for other geographies reeling under the ferocious onslaught of Covid-19, also.
- Dr. Swaamee Aprtemaanandaa Jee
(The writer is a Scientific Healer, yoga-Practitioner, Scientist, citizen-Economist, Researcher and well known for informative analytical pieces on Healing, Spirituality, Yoga, Fitness, Health, Medicine, Ayurveda, Science, Economics, and Politics)