Yoga Vidya International

Community on Yoga, Meditation, Ayurveda and Spirituality

Statistical Trend Shows Silver Lining in Gloomy Covid-19 Cloud Over the USA

The trend of Recovery-Rate (Rt) for the last 12 days has shown a silver lining amidst gloomy cloud of 100,000+ Covid-19 deaths. The Rt was on 14th May - 78.54%, and on 22 May, it was 80.50%. 26 May had Rt of 82.68%. Increase in Recovery Rate (Rt) in 8 days from 14 May to 22 May is nearly 2% (1.96%). Increase in Recovery Rate (Rt) in 4 days from 22 May to 26 May is slightly more than 2% (2.18%).
INTERPRETATION
Rt of 2% is now taking half the time than it took previously. It means, next 2% Rt shall take only 2 days,i.e., 28 May. Then, Rt shall become 84%. It shall become 86% on 29 May. Then, it shall take just 12 hours to become 88%. It shall be 90% in next 6 hours. By 21st hour, Rt should be 92%. It shall be 94% by 22.30 hours, 96% by 23.15 hours, 98% by 23.37 hours and 100% by 23.48 hours! Which means, if trend of time required for Rt of 2% becoming half continues statistically, the USA shall have achieved 100% Rt on 30 May...
But, practically speaking, Rt increasing by 16% in a matter of just 1 day seems impossible.
So, the more judicious interpretation would be - 2% increase in Rt every 2 days may become a consistent pattern. If that happens, we may see the bridging of differential Rt (100-82=18) for the USA reaching 100% from 82% on 26 May in next 9 days,i.e., 4 June, 2020.
Of course, the reality may or may not tally with the statistical conjecture deduced above; partially or fully. But, what it certainly does show is: Things are looking better now, we are certainly out of Woods and the USA shall certainly see almost 98-99% Recovery-Rate by middle or 3rd week of June, 2020 if the present statistical trend/pattern continues.
This is a welcome sign which means many things: Rt is improving, healthcare system is becoming more effective by every passing day and Corona-19 virus is degrading in its scope and lethality in terms of its continuously decreasing Mutation-Rate (Mt). Of course, the contents of this brief research paper imply also, inter alia,  we must not let our guard down in our unparalleled fight against Covid-19...!
- Dr. Swaamee Aprtemaanandaa Jee
(The writer is a Scientific Healer, yoga-Practitioner, Research Scientist, Epidemiologist, citizen-Economist, Researcher and well known for informative analytical pieces on Healing, Spirituality, Yoga, Fitness, Health, Medicine, Ayurveda, Science, Economics, and Politics)

Views: 28

Tags: COVID19, Cloud, Corona-19, Hope, Mt, Mutation-Rate, Recovery-Rate, Rt, Silver, Statistically, More…USA, deaths, in, lining, virus

Comment by Dr SWAAMEE_APRTEMAANANDAA_JEE on June 4, 2020 at 8:19am

CORRIGENDUM

"But, what it certainly does show is: Things are looking better now, we are certainly out of Woods and the USA shall certainly see almost 98-99% Recovery-Rate by middle or 3rd week of June, 2020 if the present statistical trend/pattern continues."

may kindly be read as

"But, what it certainly does show is: Things are looking better now, we are certainly out of Woods and the USA shall certainly see almost 98-99% Recovery-Rate by middle or the end of 3rd week of June (i.e., June 21), 2020 if the present statistical trend/pattern continues."

Comment

You need to be a member of Yoga Vidya International to add comments!

Join Yoga Vidya International

© 2020   Yoga Vidya | Contact | Privacy Policy |   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service