Community on Yoga, Meditation, Ayurveda and Spirituality
The answer to the very basic question as to when the Corona-19 virus shall reach 100% Mutation-Rate is vital to take informed-decisions as regards when and the extent to which a given Lockdown can be relaxed.
Let's understand the concept of Mutation-Rate.
Mutation-Rate or Mt is the rate at which a given virus mutates over a period of time on a scale of 10. One point on the scale represents 10%. In other words, 10 on the scale would represent 100% mutation.
When the Mt is Zero (0) then the virus is at its most ferocious. It kills the entity/patient with full vengeance if no effective vaccine or medication exists against it. Therefore, the death rate is 100% and recovery rate of virus-infected patients is Zero (0). Of course, this isn't the case in real world as evident from a number of patients, though very small, surviving the initial outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan city of China.
The implication of near-zero Mt is: immediate complete Lockdown, strict Social Distancing, testing of whole poulation and complete isolation/quarantining of infected entities/people for a certain period of time.
When the Mt is Full (100%) then the virus is at its most meak. It then fails to kill the patient whether they take any vaccine/medication or not against it. Therefore, the death rate is Zero (0) and recovery rate of virus-infected patients is FULL (100%).
The representative example of this is the seasonal Cold-virus that subsides all by itself after a certain period of time irrespective of whether you take antiviral medication/vaccine or not.
In this scenario, Lockdown can be fully relaxed and economy reopened.
To state it in terms of a generalised law, we may say - The Mt is directly proportional to Recovery-Rate (Rr) and indirectly proportional to Death-Rate (Dr).
Mt = k Rr
Mt = k/Dr
Viruses lose their ferocity with each mutation. So, a virus that has reached 100% mutation in effect means non-threatening to life.
I have laid down conceptual framework in terms of Mt in this very brief theoretical research paper. Researchers working in field and having full access to global data on Covid-19 patients may carry forward this conceptual framework of Mt. Doing so shall help gain useful insights both for Covid-19 patients and the administration/healthcare-authorities dealing with them.
- Dr. Swaamee Aprtemaanandaa Jee
(The writer is a Scientific Healer, yoga-Practitioner, Scientist, citizen-Economist, Researcher and well known for informative analytical pieces on Healing, Spirituality, Yoga, Fitness, Health, Medicine, Ayurveda, Science, Economics, and Politics)